Photo : AP / Alexander Ryumin
29 July 2023, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #581
War in Ukraine: Day 521
War on the Ground
On 29 July, Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister wrote on Telegram that Ukraine’s forces are advancing in southern Bakhmut. She noted that Russia’s forces failed to advance in Kupyansk, Lymansk, Avdiivsky and Marinskyy despite the intense fighting they put up with Ukraine’s forces. Additionally, Ukraine’s forces are making gradual advances in Berdyansk and Melitopol.
On 29 July, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine added on Facebook that in Volyn and Polike, the operational situation remains unchanged. In Shakhtarsky, Russia’s forces have carried out airstrikes and shelling in Makarivka, Staromayorske, Odradne, Blagodatne, and Rivnopil. In Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Russia’s forces are concentrated on thwarting the advances of Ukraine’s troops.
On 29 July, Deutsche Welle reported on a Russian missile strike in Dnipro that wounded nine residents in a residential complex. According to Serhiy Lysak, Regional Governor, there were two hits by Iskander missiles.
On 29 July, Rafael Mariano Grossi, IAEA’s Director General stated that Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) completed the planned transition of its reactor unit five to cold shut down and moved reactor unit 4 to hot shut down. Grossi again stressed the importance of adhering to the five basic principles established on 30 May in UNSC to protect the plant from any attacks whatsoever that could trigger a nuclear accident.
On 29 July, president.gov.ua reported that Andriy Yermark, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine had a phone call with Celso Amorim, Chief Advisor to the President of the Federal Republic of Brazil. The office-bearers discussed the preparation of another meeting of national security advisors regarding the implementation of Ukraine’s initiatives to peace based on the UN Charter and International Law.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 28 July, Business Day reported that Russia has signed several agreements for military cooperation with more than 40 African countries. The agreements would include provisions enabling the supply of a broad range of armaments and hardware to African countries. The representatives of those countries have been also invited to actively participate in Russia-organized military forums that deal with the technical aspects of the weapons and their manoeuvres. Putin assured that Russia would continue to be a reliable supplier of grain to the countries of the continent. He promised to provide free grain (25,000 o 50,000 tons) to Zimbabwe, Mali, Burkina Faso, Somalia, Eritrea and the Central African Republic in the next three to four months.
On 29 July, according to Arab News, Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, speaking at a press conference said that Russia did not reject talks on Ukraine and African Peace Initiative including the Chinese initiative could serve as a basis for peace. He added that it is difficult to implement a cease-fire while Ukraine’s forces are on the offensive and that there are no significant changes or intensification of actions on its side.
On 29 July, Putin said that Russia is “always ready for any scenario” while commenting on a potential confrontation between Russia and NATO forces. Pointing at the existing conflict-prevention lines he said that nobody wants a direct conflict scenario. Russia’s military has reported a total of 23 incidents involving aircraft of Russia and the US-led coalition since early 2023. According to RT, Admiral Oleg Gurinov, the head of the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria, most incidents took place in July.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 29 June, Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State said that according to Washington, Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s Defence Minister is in North Korea to secure weapons to support its invasion of Ukraine. According to Deutsche Welle, Pyongyang’s state media called the visit and the meeting a “friendly talk.”
On 29 July, Deutsche Welle quoting Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia is planning to host talks soon to discuss the path to achieve peace in Ukraine. The meeting would take place in Jeddah and is expected to be attended by delegations from Ukraine, Western powers and a few developing countries. Russia would not attend the meeting.
On 29 June, Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Poland, said that Wagner group fighters were observed to be approaching Poland’s border with Belarus. They are likely to help migrants enter the borders in an attempt to destabilize the country as elections are around the corner. He said that more than 100 fighters have advanced towards Suwalki Gap, a strategic corridor separating Belarus from Kaliningrad not far from Grodno in Belarus (about 15 kilometres from the borders of Poland and Lithuania). According to Deutsche Welle, if Russia or Wagner group take control of the area it would cut off Baltic states from the EU.
References
Hanna Maliar, “EAST,” Telegram, 29 July 2023
“Operational information as of 18.00 on 29.07.2023 regarding the Russian invasion,” Facebook, 29 July 2023
“Ukraine updates: Russian missile wounds several in Dnipro,” Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2023
“Putin says Russia does not reject talks with Ukraine,” Arab News, 29 July 2023
“Russia signs military deals with 40 African states, Putin says,’ Business Day, 31 July 2023
“Russia is ready for confrontation with NATO – Putin,” RT News, 29 July 2023
“US says Russian defense minister looking for weapons in North Korea,” Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2023
“Saudi Arabia to reportedly host Ukraine peace talks,” Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2023
“Poland says Wagner troops approaching border,’ Deutsche Welle, 29 July 2023
“Andriy Yermak had a phone call with Chief Advisor to President of Brazil,” presient.gov.ua, 29 July 2023